Outlook For The Ferro Silicon Futures Market in 2025

Outlook for the ferro silicon futures market in 2025:

1. Supply and demand

Supply side: It is expected that the supply of ferrosilicon will drop slightly by about 0.57% in 2025, which is mainly affected by the cost difference caused by the difference in electricity prices in the production areas, which is conducive to further concentration of production capacity.
Demand side: Total demand is expected to drop by 0.78% year-on-year, of which crude steel demand is expected to drop by 0.98% year-on-year. This shows that in the steel industry, the demand for ferrosilicon may be suppressed to a certain extent.
Export: Although international conflicts during the Trump era may have a negative impact on exports, the increase in tariffs may be unfavorable to the exchange rate, which is beneficial to exports. Comprehensively judged, the export volume will drop slightly by 7.45% year-on-year.

2. Industry trends

Magnesium metal production: Stimulated by favorable policies for the manufacturing industry, magnesium metal production is likely to remain above the current level, and is expected to increase slightly by 2.77% year-on-year. This may have a certain supporting effect on the demand for ferrosilicon.
Policy impact: The market is full of expectations for the implementation of policies related to energy consumption dual control, but the impact of policies on ferroalloy prices is getting shorter and shorter, the rise is getting lower and lower, and the enthusiasm of capital expectations is gradually declining. Therefore, the substantial impact of the policy still needs to be waited.

3. Price Outlook and Operation Suggestions

Price Outlook: Looking forward to the price of ferrosilicon in 2025, fundamentals are still the main factor. The improvement of oversupply requires a long period of low production, so the upward pressure on prices is relatively large.
Operation Suggestions: The medium- and long-term operation suggestions are mainly based on rebound short selling. The signals of specific buying and selling points need to pay close attention to market dynamics and the emergence of intraday trends or band signals.

In summary, the ferro silicon futures market in 2025 will face challenges such as weak supply and demand and uncertainty in policy impacts. Investors should carefully judge market trends and flexibly adjust their operation strategies.