Industrial silicon demand

In recent years, industrial silicon demand has been mainly driven by polysilicon.

It can be clearly seen from the growth rate of industrial silicon production capacity and downstream demand in recent years that the expansion of polysilicon mainly started in 2020, with an average growth rate of 46.6% in the past four years, and the expansion of industrial silicon mainly started in 2021. The average growth rate in the past three years has been 18.3%. The growth rate of organic silicon is relatively balanced at 11%; the basic volume of alloy demand is stable, with an average growth rate of only 5% in the past four years. Therefore, the expansion core of the industrial silicon industry chain is mainly polysilicon-photovoltaics. There is basically no need to pay too much attention to alloy and export demand.

The cost composition of industrial silicon: silica (2.7-3 tons) + carbon reducing agent (2 tons, coal, petroleum coke, charcoal) + electrode (0.1-0.13 tons) + electricity (12,000 degrees) + others (more than 2,000 yuan), Among them, general electricity accounts for 35%, carbon reducing agent accounts for 20%, electrodes account for 15%, and silica accounts for 10%. Calculated based on the current prices of carbon reductants and electrodes, the cash flow cost in Xinjiang is 10,000 yuan/ton, which corresponds to a complete cost of more than 12,000 yuan/ton. If the electricity price in Yunnan during the wet season is also included, it corresponds to this. price level. And judging from the market fluctuations in the past two years, the cost support of this gradient is strong. The market price below 12,000 yuan/ton will indeed bring about a decrease in output/negative feedback from the factory.